Trade Analysis

Author: Josh Jenson - Rafi Bomb

After doing some in depth research, I’m in favor of the Kelly Tough and Call of Jeudy trade. I think some if us may be looking at this with a raised eyebrow, based on where guys being traded were initially drafted and because of the Bills’ impressive offense. For reference, I've included the numbers are at the bottom of this post.

Like most of you, I was taken back and was initially against this trade. These numbers, coupled with the context of the trade, have me convinced this is fair. Below is an explanation of the numbers.

The players Kelly Tough would receive (Winston, Allen, Pitts) were on average drafted in round 3.6, with the average draft pick number at 40.3. The call of Jeudy would receive (Sutton, Hurts, Dotson) were on average drafted in round 7, with the averagedraft pick number at 77.6.

This seems very unbalanced until you look at the current numbers these players are putting up. The potential Kelly Tough players through two weeks has averaged 32.4 points per player, and the average player rank is 18.6. The potential Jeudy team is 38.8 points per player and the average player rank is 12.3. The 0-2 Jeudy team is getting better players and the 2-0 Kelly Tough team is getting worse ones, based on what we've seen so far this season.

The trade makes sense for one reason– Kelly Tough needs QBs and Call of Judy has 4 rostered. Kelly only drafted two and one is out for the season (Trey Lance). Looking at the waiver wire, the best QB available is Joe Flacco, who will be replaced soon by Zach Wilson. Kelly Tough needs long term depth to his QB bench and this adds to it. Call of Jeudy has 4 stating QBs and has a chance to capitalize on his abundance.

While on this topic, I noticed that there is what some would call a hording of QBs. There are a total of 36 QBs sitting on rosters(breakout is also below.) A total of three teams have four players, three teams have two players, and the remainder each has three. There are some teams that have three legit starting QBs while some have bench guys that are probably stashed as keepers for next year. Jeudy has four legit starting QBs, but only because Jimmy G was promoted due to the Trey Lance injury, which impacted Kelly Tough.

I did not look into rosters from last year, but I believe that this is directly linked to the super flex. I think it is as least worth discussing whether we want to cap the total number of QBs a team can have rostered for next year. I’m not sure if I’m in favor of the rule, but I think it is a discussion at least worth having.

In summary, I favor this trade because it will allow for an 0-2 team to improve and for a 2-0 team to stay in the playoff hunt, even by making a clear sacrifice. Jeudy took a risk by drafting four QBs and paid the price in weeks one and two by not having diversified depth on his roster. Kelly Tough also took a risk by only drafting two QBs and is now paying the price and is clearly having to make concessions. From my perspective this is a fair trade.