Draft Analysis

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” Charles Dickens may not have meant it this way, but his famous words apply to how we all feel right after the draft. ”I like _____, but I wasn’t able to _____.” Fear not league! Your pompous commissioner is here to dispel the dissonance you all feel and either shower you with praise or feed your fears of failure and ineptitude! Let the incredibly biased, all too early, and totally ridiculous judgement commence!

Awards! Yes, let's create and hand out some awards! First up, the winner of the Rex Ryan “We’ve won the offseason” award goes to… Washington Foreskins.

What I liked:

The QB duo of Josh Allen and Russell Wison will simply be a terror every freaking week. These are two QB’s that have a high upside scoring with their arm and have a strong rushing upside to boot. 2 elite dual threat QBs will be tough to beat. Having Jared Goff on the bench to spell them during their bye weeks is a solid option. Your starting WR’s are another area strength. Tyreke Hill and Deandre Hopkins? Sign me up all day. I dare you to find A team in our league with four players who can match your fours production. Go ahead, I’ll wait… I didn’t think so. You’ll have weeks where you’ll be the team at the rec leauge basketball tournament where all your guys played D1 basketball and the team your matched up against should have signed up for the 6’ and under division. rounding out your wide receiver group, Golladay and Beasley should form a nice starting unit where Golladay has real upside and Beasley should be a strong PPR option. I probably like David Montgomery at starting RB more than most and I think the duo with Darrell Henderson should be just solid enough to get the job done. They just won’t be spectacular though. Without an elite TE 1, I like you’re thinking in taking shots with Jonnu Smith and Evan Engram. Smith should have safe production with a rookie QB in NE and Engram is a guy that has always had a ton of potential and could be much better if Daniel Jones figures out how to play QB. That’s a lot to like and no wonder you start the season at the top of the food chain!

What you’re going to need to figure out:

Running back depth sticks out like a sore thumb. You ought to be able to figure that out though, especially knowing you really only have to have one RB in your starting lineup every week. Every season it seems that there is a RB that was undrafted who goes on to be an elite producer. Should you find that guy, close the book on the season! You’ll have fully moved on from your days languishing in The Sacko Bowl and you’ll instead be bring home The Shiva!

Next category… The Tony Finau “you’ll be in the running but can you get over the hump?” award. The candidates include (and it’s most of us), Coulda Sworn I Drafted Herbert, Flint Tropics, TomBradyForever, Kelly Tough, Atwater, El Chapo, Puro Macho, and Rafi Bomb. And the winner (loser?) is… TomBradyForever.

What I liked:

Here we go again. Another award and another team that kept a QB and got a steal with Lamar Jackson in the 4th round. It’s hard to argue with that kind of strategy and fortune! Never look a gift horse in the mouth I always say. At QB 2, I’m not the biggest Baker Mayfield fan, but he did seem to get things figured out by the end of last season. He has a ton of weapons and could end up a top 10 QB even without much of a rushing upside. Your running back room is really deep. Like ridiculously so. McCaffrey will remind everyone why he’s the best running back in the league this year. Nick Chubb wouldn’t like me saying that because he has a legitimate claim to the best RB title after the year he just put up. You have 3 starting RB’s on your bench in Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, and Devin Singletary. Talk about luxury! You won’t have to worry about that position at all. Oh, and you stole my keeper selection of Deshaun Watson. If he somehow ends up getting traded and plays this season, book it. You’ll be crowned champ! Even without him playing this year, it’s just a savvy pic to have as a keeper next year. Excellent drafting and great timing!

What you’re going to need to figure out:

I like but don’t love your wide receivers. Robert Woods will be solid but doesn’t have much of a ceiling in my mind. He’s like the girl you hung out with and thought she was super, just super. She seems like she checks all the boxes. You wanted to like her but you just didn’t feel the fire and there is no real reason why. That’s how I feel about Robert Woods. Sorry Bob, nothing personal. It’s a me not you kind of thing. In part, I don’t know if his skill set fits with Stafford to have the kind of breakout year a WR1 could have with the level of QB improvement the Rams got this offseason. Theilen is another guy that should be decent, but probably not spectacular. He’s like the girl that when you first met you thought she was hot, and she was, but then she started hanging out with this new girl and this new girl was a freaking smoke show making you wonder just how hot was the girl you liked to begin with? That’s how I feel about Theilen. The rest of your WR’s are average and not super inspiring. I don’t see breakout potential, which I want somehere on my bench. I’m not a huge fan of Landry, Davis, or Gage. I don’t really care for Jakobi Meyers at all, but he’s a Patriot so take that for what it’s worth. All in all, it feels like all year long you’ll be the guy wishing you had someone else’s girl at the WR position. Okay, probably enough with the female comparisons. My wife might read this. Back to football.

Next category… The Vernon Gholston “All hype, no substance” award. The candidates include, Snickle Frits, Over the Taysom Hill, and The Walking Dez. And the winner is: Over the Taysom Hill.

I’m being unfair here because I don’t actually dislike the roster of any of these three teams. They just make me nervous. Nervous similar to when you were a little kid playing tackle football and your dad was the coach and to prove a point to the team, he squared little ol’ you up to tackle the hulking behemoth running back named Brian Bench and told you to tackle him at his legs (because you could tackle Emmett Smith or Barry Sanders if you hit them in the legs) and you did. And then you got up feeling both glad you tackled him but nervous to do it again because that freaking hurt! That’s the kind of nervous I mean. Let me break it down.

Over the Taysom Hill:

This should be a solid starting unit across the board. I mean you have the reigning MVP at QB and the best WR in the league in Stefon Diggs (see what I did there?) and George Kittle at TE who will be out to remind people that he’s as good or better than Kelce. That’s a tough trifecta to beat. I’m nervous about the depth. You know, the kind of nervous you get when you’re hunting for the first time and every noise you hear is a deer and every branch you see are antlers causing you to question everything you hear and see? That kind. I’m also wondering about a possible regression from some of the studs this year. Diggs had a career year last year. Can he do it again with even more attention being paid to him? Rodgers should be unstoppable again but I’m still not sure who he throws to outside of Davonte Adams. He’s also been known to go through the motions a bit. Will he be more focused on making Green Bay’s front office look silly? He likes to play his mind games. I’m not sold on Cobb on his second stint in GB either. If I had to bet, I’d bet on the Daniel Jones ship having already sailed. Mike Williams in LA should have been so much better than he’s been, but he simply is far too inconsistent for me to roster. Mike Williams is like the profession that your parents wanted you to go into and kept telling you how many benefits there would be if you would just listen to them. Sure, logically it could have worked. It just never did. Sorry Mike! Kareem Hunt at RB has a Nick Chubb cap that won’t go away without injury. Again, I like the starting lineup, but the back end of the roster may need to be churned and that makes me nervous.

Snickle Frits:

You have a strong big three as well. I like Zeke Elliott, Travis Kelce, and Justin Jefferson. You know, Jefferson the hot chick that made you question how much you like Theilen. At QB you’re missing a QB on the roster to feel really good about. I’m lukewarm on Derek Carr at QB. Carr is like that friend you had in school that you were cool with because he seemed like it at first, but then he started hanging out with a different group of guys and you realized you didn’t really like him as much because you started to see that he is kind of a bonehead, even though he’s probably still the same guy he’s been all along. That’s my read on Carr. He needs to stop hanging out with the Raiders, but even if he does, he’ll probably still be the same dude he’s always been. Nothing spectacular. At running back, I’m not a huge fan of Myles Gaskin. I know he has a starting spot in Miami but I’m really down on their offense. I think Gaskin is like the band that is super pumped to be opening up at a huge venue only to find out they are opening up for Creed and it’s the year 2020 where you won’t really have any fans at the concert and the headlining band hasn’t been relevant for 20 years. I don’t want that guy on my team at RB 2. At WR, I’m not the biggest Marvin Jones fan and think the Jags will probably force feed plays to Shenault instead so they have a WR to grow with Lawrence. That limits Jones too much in my mind. Allen Robinson is uber talented and if he had a real QB I’d like him so much more. They just have NOTHING to threaten other teams with and I expect the coverage to roll to Robinson with regularity. Dalton probably can’t be a difference maker at this stage in his career. I don’t think Fields can either, though his legs may put defenses in man coverage more often and open things up a bit for him. We’ll see. I really Aiyuk’s talent but SF has a lot of mouths to feed. Same goes for Emmanuel Sanders in Buffalo. He will probably be strong to start the year, I just think that Gabriel Davis is the future WR2 in Buffalo and will be really hard to keep off the field. The coaching staff will find ways to get him out there and owe nothing to Sanders. I have a rule to never draft one trick ponies like Robby Anderson (deep ball only) because they are too hot and cold. I could be wrong, but I think the Jets kind of ruined Sam Darnold. And I won’t even talk about the QB situation in Denver. I think they should be starting Drew Lock, but what do I know. There are things to like with nearly everyone on the roster, it just seems to me that a lot will have to break right to get to the potential. Kind of like when Happy Gilmore beat Shooter McGavin on 18 when he slapshot a putt off the windshield, onto the sign, down the antenna, through the metal piping and into the hole. Kind of like that, just not nearly as drastic and missing the giant stalker fan heckling your rival.

The Walking Dez:

I feel very similar about your roster. It’s made up of guys that just don’t quite do it for me. Kamara is a stud. I’ve had him as my keeper for so many years I don’t know what I will do without him this year. I’m still high on him this year and think he may flirt with RB1 because the offense will run through him in NO. Sean Peyton trusts him and will feed him. Darren Waller probably loves having Carr at QB because he will feed him. Carr is like the friend in high school that is willing to drive his car when you do stupid stuff and willing to get caught or is willing to pay for lunch all the time because everyone else “forgot” their money, just to be one of the guys. Geeze, I didn’t realize I had such strong feelings about Derek Carr. Maybe I should lay off him and give him a break. At WR, Curtis Samuel is a stud, but I have a feeling that Fitzmagic will develop an affinity for Terry McClaurin and lock onto him instead. Fitzy has a history of gelling with one WR and not showing enough love to everyone else to be fantasy consistent. I do really like Dionte Johnson but I’m out on Big Ben and the Steelers this year. They have a ton of talented receivers with JuJu back healthy and they will want to keep Harris busy at RB to prevent Roethlisberger’s arm from falling off. I want Jeudy to be a thing in Denver, I just haven’t seen it yet. I also think a healthy Courtland Sutton is the best WR in Denver come game day. RB depth is meh for me. David Johnson will get his carries and probably won’t produce much. That’s kind of how I feel about Chase Edwards too. Damien Harris may be okay, but I’ve sworn off all NE running backs (read: Belichick loves to mess with fantasy football). Again, there is potential, I’m just not seeing the production.

Thoughts on the other drafts I didn’t delve into.

Coulda Sworn I Drafted Herbert:

I really do like your team. Your QB situation could be the downfall though. Will Garapollo play the entire year? If not, you’re in trouble because Minshew may not play this year. Outside of that, I’m a big fan of the roster. Ekeler proved his value last year and should only be better with improved QB play. CEH should improve this year after being a fantasy letdown last year. In fact CEH really produced when he was unquestioned RB1 the first 6 weeks and he should return to that role with no real competition at RB this year. At WR, I think Godwin will take over as WR 1 in Tampa this year. The Brady to Godwin connection was never there last year but reports out of TB point to Godwin and Brady looking dynamic. Mostert could have a really good year in SF and the same goes for Pitts in ATL where they will force feed him the ball given where he was taken in their draft. you’re taking the same gable as ATL though because rookie TE’s almost never produce. I’m a big fan of DJ Chark and think he should be the go-to guy in Jacksonville. Ruggs has a chance to grow, and they’ll want (need?) him to in LV, even if he has poor Carr at QB. Mayock and Gruden have to be right on their picks and will want to do all they can this year to be right on Ruggs. Jamar Chase has been the talk of the town north of Lexington. Coaches and fans have raved about him all offseason so if Burrow can take a step, he could be a gem. I don’t think I have enough words to write all the nice things that are coming out of LA about Justin Herbert. I really like the potential, but your QB’s have to come through all season, or you could be toast.

Flint Tropics:

Where to begin? I’m a big fan of this roster. Matt Stafford and Sean McVay? I’ll order that please. Dalvin Cook. Yep. Calvin Ridley may be the best WR that gets the least attention. He’s so good! DK Metcalf as a 9th round pick. That’s better than Seattle picking him in the 2nd round. I already wrote about what I think Terry McClaurin has in store for him teaming with Fitzpatrick. Chris Carson… well there are enough Seattle fans to know his value. Hockenson ought to be solid at TE. Man, I really like this team. Then I get to your bench. Gronk has potential but will he have a season like last year where he is MIA for much of the year? As long as he shows up at the end of the year, it won’t matter. I wouldn’t roster AJ Green in Arizona, he’s beyond done. I was such a big fan of his while he wasted away in Cincinnati but he’s one of those guys that carries more value in real life than he will in fantasy. Antonio Brown in TB? Probably more valuable in real life and maddeningly inconsistent in fantasy. I do like Tyler Boyd at WR but things are getting crowded in Cincy and Tee Higgins exploded last year. If that chemistry between Higgins and Burrow remains, and Chase factors into the passing game, it may come at the expense of Boyd. I’m not a huge fan of any of the RB’s you have on your bench.

Atwater:

You typically have a roster than I can get behind. This year is no different. One of the things I like about it is that most of your guys are on the upswing. Miles Sanders at RB has the talent and will get every opportunity to ball out in Philly. Having a running QB usually helps the RB and we should see improvement from that position this year after the Eagles had a full offseason to prepare for life with Hurts at QB. AJ Brown is another receiver who I think is just dominant. He doesn’t get talked about enough either. Mahomes is super talented and obviously capable of having a dominant fantasy year like he had 2 years ago. I mean, he’s just actually figuring out how to fully read defenses? How is that even possible? Tannehill is a huge question mark for me. I saw him enough in Miami to have been totally out on him and then he hooks up with Arthur Smith who turns him into Rich Gannon reincarnate. What will happen now that Smith is in Atlanta? Which Tannehill will we see? If it’s the one we have seen the last 2 years, you should be a real contender. If not, well… you have a lot of hope riding on your Denver bench. I don’t hate it though. Williams may take over as RB 1 by the end of the season. I have an unhealthy appreciation for Courtland Sutton so I’ll stop gushing. Gibson has a chance to be better than good in Washington. Fields should be starting by the halfway point in the year and you’ll be in great shape at superflex. Callaway has gotten a ton of love and opportunity in NO. I’m meh on everyone else.

El Chapo:

I think you have a strength at RB and should be fairly solid at WR. I don’t love your TE’s mostly because I don’t expect another TD explosion from Tonyan. Henry will carry you though and you will have weeks where he flat out wins matchups for you. Keenen Allen just produces and doesn’t get credit. Mike Evans should still be a stud, especially in the red zone again with TB12. Aaron Jones proved me wrong last year, as I was expecting a regression, and I won’t be making that same prediction this year. Odell Beckham is a real wildcard. He is young enough to still have the potential to blow up and dominate in Cleveland. He also has had enough injuries for concern and needs Mayfied to look at him with the kind of longing in his eyes Eli Manning used to. If he can get back to his old ways, you could have a scary team. Kirk Cousins isn’t exciting, but he always seems to produce in fantasy football. The same can be said for Fitzpatrick. That position is a weakness though. I hate to say I’m not a Zach Wilson believer, but I don’t see it happening this year in NY and I’m not sure I see it really at all for him with that franchise. I saw Zach Wilson 2 years ago and I’m not sold on him based on the teams that BYU played last year. I think the Jets are a mess and one of the worst landing spots for Wilson. I hope I’m wrong (not for the Jets, just for him) and if I am and he plays up to his potential, your teams potential is championship.

Puro Macho:

I seem to always like your drafts and this year is no different. The more I looked at your team the more I couldn’t figure out why I didn’t really, really like your team. And then it dawned on me: you don’t have someone that I feel like is going to dominate and just take over on a given week. Your team is like the nice guy that does all the right things, says all the right things, is super respectful to all the girls, has lots of friends that are girls, but somehow ends up not being able to get the girl he wants who instead falls for the tantalizing, exciting, bad boy. I really do like your starters and your bench. I think you have a well-rounded team. I like DJ Moore not just because he’s a Maryland alum but because he’s really good. CeeDee Lamb could be the one guy that has been talked about as blowing up as a fantasy star but I’m not on that train just yet. I tend to think that Cooper is the better WR and has more of a connection with Prescott, though that seems to be an outlying opinion. Taylor is a talented RB1 but will defenses key on him with shaky QB play? Can Logan Thomas repeat his success from last year? Fitz has never really consistently trusted his tight ends, even when he had the talented Gesicki and I’m not sure this year changes that. Taylor should have that running QB safe floor, but doesn’t have a very high ceiling. Claypool does, but there are so many talented receivers in Pittsburg and Ben looked like he needed to be put out to pasture at the end of last year. I have a feeling that your team will be good because of the sum, more than having impressive individual parts. I wonder if it will hurt you though because you don’t have someone who will win the week for you every once in a while, or go toe to toe with another team with that kind of stud. That said, your team may mature and turn into “the one that got away” kind of guy that all the girls look back on and wonder why they didn’t take more seriously because it simply did everything right and was solid across the board.

Rafi Bomb:

I’m a fan of the upside you have here. Murray will be elite. I think Saquon is the most talented RB in the league. Have you seen that man’s thighs? He should win an award just for that. Will he be healthy enough though? Will the passing game be competitive enough to give him a little more space? If so, he’s a home run hitter with every touch. Will the G-Men limit his touches? I’ve heard rumors that may be the case, though you are probably better plugged in there than I am. Amari Cooper is the WR I’d want to own in Dallas. Of all the WR’s in Pittsburg, I don’t think I would want JuJu. If you can’t tell by now, I’m kind of down on all the receivers there. Mixon should be solid again, probably not special. Winston has a chance in NO and I probably like him more because I trust Sean Peyton so darn much with offensive football. I think he could end up in the QB 10 conversation. I like the upside of Gesicki, I just am down on the Dolphins offensive side of the ball. I really like Deebo Samuel. The rest of your bench is a touch on the bland side. If Winston becomes a legitimate QB and Noah Fant’s production starts to match his talent level, you’ll have a real contender. If not, you’ll be kicking yourself for not having something more at TE and breakout potential on your bench.

Kelly Tough:

I’m not sure how much I like my team. I hate having Tom Brady on my team. I’ll still actively root against him every single week. It would be a joy to sit him on my bench because he started to finally look like a 40+ year old NFL QB should look and play Matt Ryan over him. That is my dream scenario. I love my WR tandem of Davante Adams and Tyler Lockett. That will win me a few weeks all on its own I’d imagine. I don’t feel solid about Swift as RB 1, but he has a chance to lead the league in targets at RB up there with McCaffrey, I think. That might be a rosey prediction but it’s what I see Dan Campbell doing with their offense. I went for solid at TE with Andrews who should be consistent. Hunter Henry could surprise in NE with a rookie QB. I don’t know who Mac Jones will favor though between Henry and Smith. I didn’t like having Fournette on my team either, but someone has to tote the rock in TB, and it might be him. He might be inactive at some point too. Who knows with Bruce Arians? I built my bench with upside in mind and am hoping someone there will hit. Zack Moss might end up taking over the RB1 position in Buffalo by the end of the year. He’s already their Red Zone back. I think they like his running style more. Mooney has the luxury of having a true WR1 opposite him in Chicago and wont hardly ever see double coverage. He’s a second year guy with talent and opportunity so there is a chance there. Copy and paste what I just said and apply it to Shenalut in Jacksonville, except I think he’s more talented and they want to feature him more. I’m predicting Gabriel Davis to be the third option in Buffalo by the end of the year, supplanting Emmanuel Sanders. Carter in NY may not even be active to start the season but I like his talent and don’t like the options in NY ahead of him. He could slide into RB1 as the season goes on there. We’ll see. Lots of what if’s though and my RB depth is atrocious. I may have to churn this roster to stay competitive all year.

And there we have it. 4500+ words later you have all my analysis, plus some. I think Washington Foreskins is the clear favorite at the outset and will be a tough matchup all season long. I didn’t think anyone genuinely botched the draft, which should make this competitive for everyone throughout the season. I think there is real potential out in FA for RB, WR, and TE if you stand in need. But beware, there is almost nothing at QB. If you end up in need there, you’ll have to trade because that FA barrel is empty. I’m excited to see how this plays out this year.

Seeing as you all humored me in starting this article out quoting a literary genius, allow me the pleasure of finishing this off by harkening back to the classic words penned by a lyrical genius. Remember, fantasy football is “is 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will, 5% pleasure, 50% pain, and 100% reason to remember the name!” Mike Shinoda. Mic Drop!