10 Lessons I’ve Learned in Fantasy Football

I’m going to start this out by gloating just a little bit. It’s not really in my nature to do so, but it’s hard not to revel in it what this football year has been for me. First off, you all know I’m die hard for the Bills. This is the first year since I was 12 years old where my team won a playoff game. Think about that for a minute. I’m been following a football team week in and week out, year after year without seeing my team get a W in the playoffs since OJ was on trial, since our nations president was having relations with "that woman," since Braveheart came out, and since Coolio graced us with Gangstas Paradise. I’ve seen a ton of exceptionally bad football and got incredibly good at convincing myself we’d have a shot. This year has been different. The Bills are legitimately good. They may not win another game these playoffs, but the Bills have a legitimate shot this year. That feels great!

On to the fantasy side of things. This was a year where a lot went really well for me. Back in 2017 I drafted a relatively unknown dude out of Tennessee name Alvin Kamara in the 14th round. No one has drafted a keeper that has come close to his production the past 4 years. Talk about a tiny bit of skill and a whole heap of incredible luck there. This will likely be the last year I’ll ever have him on my team and I’m sure you’re all glad to see it! He was a big part of my championship year, even beyond his record setting 50+ point game in the fantasy championship! I also killed the draft this year. I got Davante Adams with the 11th overall pick in the draft who ended up as the #1 overall receiver and #4 overall R/W/T. I had 2 other stud receivers dominate for me: Calvin Ridley was WR#4 and Allen Robinson was WR#12. I also had Dionte Johnson who ended up WR#22 overall. That’s nailing it. All I had to do was churn the back end of my roster and that kind of baseline gave me the flexibility to be patient with guys that were going to get it figured out eventually. I could sit on a guy like Cam Akers after he got dropped and watch him blow up at the end of the year. All that combined put me in a position to be really tough to beat all season.

But enough gloating! This was a fun season and I really thought this year was the most balanced our league has been since our first year on NFL.com. In the end, we ended up with a rematch of last year’s championship with same outcome. You have to hate me Bradley!

To wrap up our 10th fantasy season, I did a lot of reflection and want to share with you all lessons I’ve learned through my years playing fantasy football. I’m not necessarily a fantasy guru, but these principles have served me well and have helped me to stay in contention almost all the time.

Lesson 1: Fantasy Football has an awful lot of luck involved in it.

This one is a no brainer. Good or bad, I’ve learned that no matter how prepared you are, how good you team is, or how dialed in you are with what seems most likely to happen, production is out of our hands and no one really knows what they are going to get week in and week out. Want evidence of this? Only twice over the past 10 years has the team with the best regular season record ended up as the League Champ. (It was Idaho Pack both times BTW.) We’ve had more 8-5 or 7-6 regular season victors than any other record. That’s a lot of good luck for the victors and bad luck for the losers. It’s why my approach to the entire season as a whole has turned into just get into the playoffs and see what happens. Take 2018 as an example. Puro Macho ended the season with a 12-1 record and lost in the playoffs to The Walking Dez, who had a record of 8-5 and I think had a solid but inferior team. Just get in.

Lesson 2: Build a team for the playoffs.

This builds off of lesson #1. Regular season records mean nothing as long as you get in the playoffs. Look at Snickle Frits this year. He was the 8th seed, had a regular season record of 6-7, and was Alvin Kamara away from being our first league champ with a losing record in the regular season. That means be patient with guys that may struggle in the first few weeks but have a real shot at turning things around. Obviously, you need a good enough record to get into the playoffs, but the goal is to have guys that are hot at the end of the year. Don’t give up on guys that you were high on to begin the season or are going through a dry spell. Justin Jefferson anyone?

Lesson 3: Don’t overthink it!

This is easier said than done and we could all recount matchups over the past 10 years where we second guessed ourselves to death and lost because of it. I’ll get a text almost weekly with someone kicking themselves for doing it. My standard in the regular season is to play my studs far more often than I play the matchup or the unknown guys, unless I have to throw a hail mary to keep up with a team I think I’m not capable of beating that week. It means I miss out on big weeks sometimes with guys that all the experts make their sleeper of the week, but I think helps me to get a better feel for what my team will be by the end of the year and takes pressure off of me from getting lucky weekly.

Lesson 4: Dance with who brung you!

By the time you are in the playoffs, you should have your team pretty much figured out. You may make a couple changes here or there, but the bulk of your roster should be set, pending injuries. Unless it is the Defense or a position I haven’t had production from all year, I don’t play the matchups. Take my team this year for example. I played matchups at QB and TE in the playoffs only because Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Hayden Hurst were all were streaky and unreliable all season. They didn’t bring me anywhere and many weeks I had to win in spite of them. It may have seemed like I took a risk on starting Jalen Hurts, and I was a little, but big picture I was risking very little with high upside.

Lesson 5: Get players who are on an offense that will produce.

This was a lesson I learned a long, long time ago. I won’t name names and dance on their grave, but I made a trade with someone currently in our league and stole a certain Colts running back who blew up that year because I trusted in any starter in killer offenses. If you can find the offenses that will be top 2-3 in the league, hoard players on those offenses like you are belong on A&E. You’ll end up with forgettable names like Austin Collie, Brandon Llyod, Az-Zahir Hakim, Julius Thomas, Robert Tonyan, and Eddie Kennison who can carry your team to all kinds of success.

Lesson 6: Don’t draft old WR’s and RB’s.

This one took me a while to figure out, but I’ve learned to give up on a guy a year or even 2 early and roll the dice instead on young guys. I razzed Jaxson this year hard during the draft and first couple of weeks based on this principle. He drafted Larry Fitzgerald who I’d take on my real team every day of the week, but I haven’t wanted to see him on my fantasy roster since the Anquan Boldin days. I’d rather roll the dice on an guy who is up and coming than to draft a guy that is on the decline.

Lesson 7: A QB who can run will set a high floor.

Can anyone forget Tim Tebow? In 2011 he was a far better fantasy QB than he was for the Broncos. Taysom Hill this year? Jalen Hurts? Josh Allen? Lamar Jackson? Cam Newton? Even a guy like Jake Locker? Don’t undervalue these guys as we move to superflex next year.

Lesson 8: Don’t draft or even roster flashes in the pan.

Want to know guys that you’ll probably never see on my team? Sammy Watkins. Ted Ginn Jr. Desean Jackson. Robby Anderson. This can get a little risky, but I hate chasing points from guys that are sooo up and down that they cost me games. Maybe this should just be the Sammy Watkins rule because he has all the talent in the world and will have a game or 2 a year where he blows up but will kill you the rest of the season.

Lesson 9: Our league loves defenses… don’t sleep on them.

I’ve learned that owners in our league hoard defenses. If you think you’re going to be able to stream a defense as a strategy, you can probably get away with it for the first 4-8 weeks but by the end of the season and definitely in the playoffs, nearly every owner in our league has rostered 2 defenses.

Lesson 10: Don’t roster a Patriots RB.

I don't try to hide it, I hate the Patriots. It's unhealthy. So I try to not draft Patriot players… ever, if possible. Primarily so I don’t have to root for them, but now I'm getting off track and that’s not the point. That’s just a helpful nugget of life advice everyone should adhere to! It’s more about being wary of the 3 man RB rotation or 50/50 split. I actually have been burned by the Patriots RB’s far too often over the years and should have learned long before I did. It’s why I wasn’t going to draft Devin Singletary this year because I knew he would be in for a true 50/50 split and I thought that by the end of the year Zack Moss would overtake him as lead RB. I didn’t want much to do with most of the Ravens running backs this year. I was scared of the Rams RB’s this year. The only way I want to have a guy that is a part of a split or rotation is if it’s a true running/passing back split where I know what I’m getting or a running back who is a rookie with lots of upside that I can afford to wait on all year. A guy like JK Dobbins or Johnathan Taylor this year. But you have to be patient if you’re going to do that and be prepared to maybe never have him show up.

There you have it. Most of my lessons learned right there. Maybe you agree, maybe not. If you all have some other lesson that you’ve learned and feel like sharing with your league enemies, let me know! This was a fun year for me so let me take a moment to thank you all! Enjoy the remainder of the NFL playoffs! Go Bills!